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  #16  
Old 01-04-2020, 07:20 PM
Cortinaboy Cortinaboy is offline
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Yep, I'm not doubting you or your friends; I'm sure its not uniform. We can expect to see the relative numbers of community spread increasing now as the testing expands. This may not mean increased overall numbers because there are fewer travellers to test and these were the high risk group. Hence, keep an eye on community spread component of the total new infections. That's the key one we don't want increasing much. This is whats been happening in recent days - overall numbers looking good, but the proportion of these that were community spread is increasing. This is worrying because community spread is basically saying we don't know where they got infected, so that source is probably still out there and in all likelihood they don't know they have it. Stay at home though and that wont be a problem!

Last edited by Cortinaboy; 01-04-2020 at 07:24 PM.
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  #17  
Old 01-04-2020, 08:56 PM
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From my own research and thoughts, the numbers of total cases is rising as expected at this stage, what we haven't really seen yet is the total numbers of current cases being reduced at the other end (ie, cases that have resulted in either recovery or death).

Until enough time has passed to start getting an indication of resolved cases in the figures the numbers can only rise.

I think it seems to be around 1 month from contraction/pos test to resolved case, this is just my estimate based on a few things I'm reading.

As we are still in early days (the total number of infected 1 month ago was less than 20) the cured/dead influence on the total numbers is negligible, however in another 2 weeks we should have around 350 resolved cases coming out of the total cases for that day, and a week after that the figure will be 900 cases per day coming off the total cases number and this will rise daily.

Lets just hope we do the right thing and keep the spread slow enough to start catching up and maybe even getting the cured rate above the newly infected rate and start seeing the total cases reduce.
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  #18  
Old 02-04-2020, 01:41 AM
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I've been keeping my own data and charting it just because........

I've been seeing discrepancies between differing websites for some reason. The daily new cases for Australia seems to vary from source to source, could be the time of day they are reporting on differing from each other?

Anyway here's a spreadsheet
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File Type: pdf Covid.pdf (430.3 KB, 6 views)
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  #19  
Old 02-04-2020, 05:47 AM
Cortinaboy Cortinaboy is offline
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I expect so (time of update). Try John Hopkins site (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/)

Last edited by Cortinaboy; 02-04-2020 at 05:49 AM.
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  #20  
Old 09-04-2020, 06:36 PM
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Update
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  #21  
Old 10-04-2020, 07:02 AM
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I would be very doubtful those numbers would be anywhere near correct .. China alone will have that many deaths , throw in 3rd world countries ect ect .. we have no real idea how many this thing has killed but it'll be a DohDohDohDoh load more than what we think
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  #22  
Old 14-04-2020, 09:28 AM
macca33 macca33 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mr perch View Post
I would be very doubtful those numbers would be anywhere near correct .. China alone will have that many deaths , throw in 3rd world countries ect ect .. we have no real idea how many this thing has killed but it'll be a DohDohDohDoh load more than what we think



Like us, Africa and South America will be heading into Winter soon and with that, brings increased propensity to be infected by virus. You can see what happened in the northern Winter and they were only at the tail end. I think things will get worse (globally) before they get better. We're a long way from being out of the woods...
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